Cause and Effect
Do Grades Predict Future Success?
David Lamark
New Paltz High School
Billy Joel is one of the most successful and greatest musicians in the history of music. This is a man who went to school for ten years, then dropped out at 17. He dropped out to help his single mother make ends meet. He played in piano bars and on the trains. He scored a record deal and his first album went 17 times Platinum. That is the second highest certification for a debut album. Billy Joel is just like everyone else, human. However, unlike most people, he did not graduate high school. So does having exceptional grades in high school really predict the future of students? It is highly debated nationwide, and most people think that it really does predict the future. However, people sometimes have mixed feelings about the subject leading to the question, if grades predict the future, will everyone’s future be the same?
Grades can dictate the outcome of many circumstances. This may include, privileges taken away, punishment, and then comes the pressure of passing multiple classes at one time. Sometimes it can become overwhelming, but in the end it will help out people. The pressure can be too much for some students. They then take an alternate step. They either drop out, or lower their workload. Lowering the workload is good for students who wish not to be pressured by the everlasting amount of tests, homework, and work time. “The very definition of success is elusive.(Freakonomics, 2008)”People often have different perceptions on success. Some people think little of it, and others think highly of it. Most of the time, people that think little of success, usually have a carefree lifestyle. So, if views on success dictate people’s effort, how do views on grades dictate people’s method of working?
Well here is a little story that is personal, but can be found in many households. There is a father, a breadwinner, and a caring man who dropped out of high school in his junior year. He hung out with the wrong crowd and got involved in stupid situations. The next few years were a little rocky, but he was able to find the woman of his dreams and together, they both got their heads on straight and started a family. The father works for a lighting company in Newburgh, full time, with all the benefits in the world. The mother, who has a G.E.D., is a Principal Clerk for Ulster County. Both of them struggled in school and one dropped out. Look where they are at now. Their lives are greater than they have ever been. Did their poor grades really predict a poor future?
There are innumerable examples of poor students who changed the world -- or made a pile of money. Winston Churchill was famously at the bottom of his class at Harrow, the exclusive English private school. Richard Branson left high school to run a newspaper he founded. Senator John McCain graduated 894th out of 899 in his class at the U.S. Naval Academy. President George W. Bush was a solid C student in his first year at Yale but showed early promise as a politician because he could remember the names of each of the 54 pledges in his fraternity (Macleans, 2007).
However, high school grades actually do predict the future of one thing: college success. A history of academic success, in sum, is an extraordinary powerful predictor of further educational success. What high school teacher’s measure by top grades apparently mirrors what college professor’s reward. High school valedictorians and salutatorians are as close as it gets to rock-solid bets for superb undergraduate grades and college graduation (Dark Coding, 2012).
Now does that mean that the average student will just be average in college? A lot of what success deems, revolves around the person. If the person steps up in college, which a lot do, they would have a brighter future. It does not matter if they are a 70 student. They can go to community college, improve their grades, go to finish their four years at a better school, and come out and work at a fast food joint until they can find a place to work. The job market is so messed up that very bright, Bachelor Degree toting students are forced to work minimum wage jobs because they are having difficulty finding a solid job.
Let’s step back a moment. Here is a student in their junior year of high school. They’re all ready to take the SAT. The SAT is a standardized test that students voluntarily take to evaluate their skills in writing, math, and reading. It is a very difficult test, depending on the student. Scores range from 600 to 2400. For an average student, depend on getting around a 1000 to 1500. Really good test takers often have success when it comes to taking this test. This test can highly influence a University to bring a student in, or to shut the door in their face.
Most studies find that the correlation between SAT scores and first-year college grades is not overwhelming, and that only 10 percent to 20 percent of the variation in first-year GPA is explained by SAT scores (ABC News, 2012).
This association appears weaker than it is, however, for an interesting, but seldom noted statistical reason: Colleges usually accept students from a fairly narrow swath of the SAT spectrum.
The SAT scores of students at elite schools, say, are considerably higher, on average, than those of students at community colleges, yet both sets of students probably have similar college grade distributions at their respective institutions. (ABC News, 2012). If both sets of students were admitted to elite schools or both sets attended community colleges, there would be a considerably stronger correlation between SATs and college grades at these schools. Those schools that attract students with a wide range of SAT scores generally have higher correlations between the scores and first-year grades.
The panic to get in college probably leads to the development of retentiveness towards school. Students often feel overwhelmed by the workload that is needed to be viewed as a success. In today’s society education is probably the most important part of life for people 16 to 24 for a successful future. These are the people that wait tables, offer paper or plastic, and if their lucky enough, they can push carts.
It is an extremely long road for these students, but it can feel like it goes by quickly. School is a time for students to really prepare themselves for the future. Grades are not the only thing that predicts the future. There is community service, extracurricular activities and even more things. Grades are just a small piece of the puzzle. All of the pieces can help, key word being help, predict the future. Future success lies within the bodies and heart of a truly dedicated and educated human being. The tools are there, the work space is there, it is just up to the person to use what is provided to aid them in the right direction.
Works Cited
Paul Kimelman (September 29th, 2008) Do Grades
Predict Success? Retrieved from website: http://www.freakonomics.com/2008/09/29/do-good-grades-predict-success/
Sarah Scott (August 30th, 2007) Do Grades Really Matter?
Retrieved from website: http://www.macleans.ca/education/postsecondary/article.jsp?content=20070910_109139_109139
Graham King (September 4th, 2012) Does Success at High School Predict Success in Life?
Retrieved from website: http://www.darkcoding.net/society/does-success-at-high-school-predict-success-in-life/
John Allen Paulos (July 1st, 2012) Do SAT Scores Predict Success?
Retrieved from website: http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/WhosCounting/story?id=98373&page=1